A surplus of cereals is pushing down prices in the EU. Canola stays above €490/t thanks to oil above $100
The European agri-commodities market enters the spring of 2026 with a significant imbalance between supply and demand. Cereals are under pressure from high stocks and weaker exports, while rapeseed is holding its price thanks to developments in energy markets. The difference in the behaviour of individual commodities is more pronounced today than in previous seasons.
Wheat: exports not enough to match supply
The price of food wheat on the MATIF exchange at the end of March is approximately between 210 to 230 €/t, which is 15 to 20 % less than two years ago, according to the European Commission.
The main problem is not production, but sales. EU fails to export sufficient volumes to reduce stocks, with traders saying price competition from Russia is a key factor. The latter regularly fluctuates in tenders by 10 to 30 €/t lower, which virtually pushes European wheat out of parts of traditional markets.
Weaker exports to North Africa and the Middle East mean that some production remains in Europe. Market fails to „clean up“ before the new season, which increases the likelihood of continued pressure on prices.
Maize: import pressure concentrates in Central Europe
Maize is traded within the EU for around 200 to 220 €/t, but this average does not reflect regional differences. In Central Europe, prices are under more pressure due to imports from Ukraine.
According to traders, Ukrainian corn is cheaper in the long term by 10 to 20 €/t, with significant volumes remaining in countries such as Slovakia, Hungary and Poland.
It is not just about the price difference, but about the physical presence of the commodity on the market, which increases supply without adequate growth in demand. The result is weaker domestic sales and rising stocks ahead of the new harvest.
Stocks as a major factor before harvest
According to both the European Commission and market analysts, the situation in 2026 differs from previous years in that the key price-setting factor is not output but the level of inventories.
In many regions, storage capacities are above average. This creates pressure to sell before the new harvest arrives. If exports do not accelerate, the market may face a confluence of old and new production, which historically leads to a fall in prices in the summer months.
Regional influences: Poland pushes exports, Germany holds back demand
Price developments in Central Europe are also strongly influenced by neighbouring markets. Poland is trying to export its cereal surpluses, increasing the pressure on prices in the region.
At the same time, Germany, which is key to the oilseeds market, is seeing weaker demand for biofuels, according to analysts. This factor limits the growth of rapeseed prices despite the favourable development on the energy market.
Repka: different market, different logic
Beet is currently trading at around 490 to 500 €/t per MATIF, which puts it outside the trend for cereals.
The difference is that rapeseed is directly linked to the energy sector, especially through biodiesel production. This means that its price reacts not only to harvests and stocks, but also to the development of oil prices.
Oil above $100 changes pricing
Brent crude oil price in the March 2026 range 105 to 120 USD per barrel, with agency reports suggesting that this is the result of tensions over Iran and the risk of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.
Compared to the beginning of the year, this is an increase of approximately 30 to 40 USD/barrel, which has a direct impact on the economics of biofuels.
The higher oil price increases the competitiveness of biodiesel and thus the demand for rapeseed. According to traders, this mechanism is currently the main reason why the price of rapeseed is significantly higher than the price of cereals.
On the other hand, this growth factor is limited. High global supply and regulatory interventions in Germany make rapeseed is not declining, but neither is it growing significantly.
The market is driven by stocks and energy, not harvests
The development in 2026 confirms the shift in market logic. Today, grains are primarily influenced by stocks and trade flows, while canola responds to the energy sector.
For practice, this means a fundamental change. It is not enough to monitor yields and the weather. Decisions must be based on information on stocks, imports and energy price developments, which today directly determine price trends in the agri-commodity market.
