Evolution of the price of grain on world markets since 1900
The price of wheat has increased nearly 18-fold in real terms from 1913 to 2022 - from 29 USD/t to a record 522 USD/t. Behind this figure is not long-term demand growth, but a series of sudden shocks: two world wars, the oil crisis of the 1970s, the food crisis of 2007-2008 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The grain market has historically been one of the most sensitive barometers of geopolitical and macroeconomic stability - any significant external shock is reflected in a price spike, which is much more intense than for industrial goods.
The following analysis traces the evolution of cereal prices from 1900 to the present through data graphs. The result is a market picture where technological progress in agriculture has dampened prices over the long term, but geopolitical and climatic breaks will always overcome them.
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International trade in cereals in the first half of the 20th century
According to the study The Dynamics of International Trade in Cereals the grain market was already fully globalized by 1900-1938. Prices reacted synchronously to war conflicts, trade barriers and the collapse during the Great Depression. International trade flows in cereals did not just fall as a result of a fall in demand - regulation, exchange rate restrictions and the disintegration of trade relations between the major powers played a decisive role.
Both indicators hover just above the 100 index until the outbreak of World War I. In the years 1914-1920 wheat prices soared to around 250-280, while the general wholesale index rose more moderately (around 200-220). This over-pricing of wheat relative to other commodities illustrates how war disruptions to supply chains - production shortfalls from Russia and Ukraine, blockade of shipping routes - are pushing up food prices faster than inflation itself.
After 1920, a sharp drop follows: by 1923, both indices return below 150. Wheat falls faster, confirming its higher market volatility compared to industrial commodities. It culminates in the Great Depression: in 1932, the wheat index falls well below 60 - The real price is more than 40 % lower than before the war in 1913. External shocks (war, crisis) control the price development of agri-commodities much more intensively than supply and demand fundamentals.
Development of the cereal trade 1903-1938
Rice writes the most remarkable story: from an index of 100 in 1903, it climbs to 306 at the end of the reporting period - a threefold increase, reflecting the expansion of Asian trade routes and growing demand from colonial economies. Wheat has held relatively steady with moderate growth.
On the contrary, oats and rye are experiencing a structural decline - their index has been declining continuously since the 1920s. The cause is clear: the mechanisation of transport has eliminated the horse as the main source of demand for oats. Maize shows the greatest volatility, with marked fluctuations in 1914-1918 and again in the 1930s. The chart shows that each commodity responds to geopolitical and economic changes with a different sensitivity and in a different direction - „grain“ is not a homogeneous category.
World War II and grain prices (1939-1945)
During the years of the Second World War, cereal prices in most countries administratively regulated and production subordinated to the needs of war. Market prices from this period are not fully comparable with those of the peacetime years. According to historical USDA statistics, the wholesale price of wheat in the USA in 1940 was approx. USD 1 per bushel, equivalent to USD 39/t - i.e. below the level the market would have reached without state intervention.
The fifties and sixties are a period of remarkable stability: wheat trades in a range 60-80 USD/t despite the growing population. The cause is clear - the massive expansion of cultivation thanks to the „green revolution“ (hybrid varieties, synthetic fertilisers, mechanisation) is producing a surplus that is depressing prices.
A major breakthrough comes in 1973-1974: the price jumps from about 80 to almost 200 USD/t - an increase of more than 140 % in two years. Behind this leap are simultaneous shocks: the oil crisis (more expensive fertilisers and transport), the Soviet Union's massive purchase of American wheat and the failure of crops on several continents. The 1980s brought a decline, but prices oscillated in the range of USD 120-180/t - consistently above pre-crisis levels. The year 2000 closes the century below USD 120/t, which in real terms represents one of the lowest points ever - a testament to technological advances in agriculture.
World market prices for the main cereals (USD/t)
The chart captures five commodities during a period that includes the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the subsequent normalisation. Rice dominates throughout the period with prices in the 400-600 USD/t; its peak around 2023 is linked to India's export restrictions, which banned paddy exports in the summer of 2023.
Wheat, maize and sorghum follow an almost identical pattern: stability until 2020, sharp increase in 2021-2022 (wheat reaches 440-520 USD/t) and a downward trajectory back to USD 200-250/t from 2023.
This synchronised movement of the three commodities confirms that the driving force behind the growth was not any specific agronomic cause, but systemic geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks - the disruption of Black Sea export corridors and the inflationary environment. Barley reacted more mutedly and stabilised earlier, reflecting its smaller share of the global export market.
Comparison of cereal prices with other commodities
The chart contrasts agricultural commodities with industrial raw materials and precious metals. The result is clearly unfavourable for agribusiness: cocoa exceeded the 230 index (more than doubling in price from 2023, caused by crop failures in West Africa) and gold and silver are above the 150-170 index.
On the contrary, wheat has fallen to around 75-80 - 20-25 % below the 2023 reference year. Sugar, cotton and coal behave similarly. For farmers, this means a deterioration in the input-output trade-off: energy and fertiliser costs (linked to oil and metal prices) are falling more slowly than grain sales revenues. Precious metals are benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty and demand from central banks; grains are experiencing a price correction after the 2022 record highs.
Wheat prices in different countries
Cereal prices vary considerably by region. The differences are due to climatic conditions, the degree of self-sufficiency, logistics costs and government intervention in the market.
The common denominator is a sharp price peak in 2022: Ukraine and Argentina reach values above 500 USD/t - an increase of more than 100 % compared to 2020. Paradoxically, it is Ukraine, as a country in active war conflict, that is experiencing one of the highest price peaks; the reasons for this are the geopolitical risk premium, the disruption of export corridors across the Black Sea and the current pressure from buyers on remaining resources. France and Germany peak earlier and correct faster - functioning EU market mechanisms and reliable logistics mitigate the shock.
India stands out as a statistical outlier: its prices fluctuate in a narrow band 200-300 USD/t throughout the period under review, the result of massive government regulation, government stocks and export restrictions that de facto decouple the Indian market from the global price signal. By 2025-2026, all countries converge to the $200-330/t band - the market has absorbed most of the war premiums.
Overview of wheat prices in key historical periods
Historical prices for 1913-1945 are based on real values recalculated from official USDA statistics (government-regulated prices). Prices after 2000 represent international benchmark prices responding to global crises.
| Period | Year | Wheat price (USD/t) | Impact on prices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before the 1st JHA | 1913 | $29.17/t | Stability before the war |
| After the 1st SVV | 1920 | $67.09/t | Price increases for disrupted production |
| The Great Depression | 1929 - 1933 | $14.04/t | Crop prices fall by 40 - 60% |
| 2. SVV | 1939 - 1945 | $39.32/t | Regulations |
| World food crisis | 2008 | $439.72/t | Prices rose sharply |
| Conflict in Ukraine | 2022 | $522.29/t | Record cereal prices |
The table clearly shows that wars, economic crises and disruptions in supply chains have had a significant impact on cereal prices. The highest values have been recorded during modern global crises - and not, as is sometimes assumed, during world wars, when prices were regulated.
Current world wheat prices from mid-2025 and early 2026
The average reference price for wheat on world markets at the beginning of 2026 is around 218 USD/t (180-200 €/t on European export markets). After the record highs of 2022 and the 2008 crisis, the market has entered a phase of consolidation. The price curve is oscillating in a relatively narrow band without significant jumps, indicating that neither climatic nor geopolitical factors have yet reached sufficient intensity for another price break.
The market is currently keeping a close eye on the state of winter wheat in the US and southern EU, the Australian and Argentinian harvest forecasts and the further development of the Black Sea export corridors.
Germany and Austria lead with prices around 198 €/t, which corresponds to their position at the heart of a European consumer market with higher logistical and quality demands. Romania and the Czech Republic show lower prices, reflecting their export orientation and proximity to the cheaper Black Sea trade. The inter-regional dispersion within the EU (around 15-20 €/t) is relatively small in the historical context and confirms the efficiency of the single market.
Feed maize shows a more pronounced geographical dispersion of prices than food wheat. Spain (Zaragoza) and France lead the way - Spain is one of the largest pork producers in the EU and is dependent on imports. Countries with larger own production (Romania, Hungary) show lower farmgate prices. For feed cereals regional factors play a more significant price role than for food commodities.
Durum wheat is the most differentiated from other cereals in terms of price: the price in Italy exceeds 260 €/t - more than 30 % above the prices of common food wheat in Germany. Durum has a geographically concentrated production (Italy, France, North Africa, Canada) and a highly specific demand - it is the raw material for pasta and couscous. Any crop failure in key growing areas (drought in Algeria or Canada) will have a much faster and sharper impact on price than for commodities with a more diverse geography of production. For durum processors, this is a strategic input with limited substitution possibilities.
Will cereal prices continue to rise in the future?
According to OECD and FAO estimates, prices for wheat, maize and other cereals are expected to approximate the medium-term trend over the long term, with moderate nominal growth until 2034 - with a target of around USD 296/t for wheat.
The key word is „nominal“: at an annual inflation rate of 2-3 % the real purchasing power of the wheat price remains almost constant or declines slightly. For growers, this means that price optimism should be read with caution - nominal growth is not automatically income growth in real terms.
Rice maintains the highest nominal prices over the entire reference horizon, with wheat and maize following with more stable trends. The most significant risk factor that may overshoot this forecast to the upside remains the intensification of climatic extremes and potential geopolitical tensions in key production areas - the Black Sea region, the South Asian monsoon belt and the North American prairie.
