{"id":770,"date":"2026-03-16T10:04:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T10:04:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/?p=770"},"modified":"2026-03-31T23:20:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T23:20:55","slug":"vyvoj-ceny-obilia-na-svetovych-trhoch-od-roku-1900","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/vyvoj-ceny-obilia-na-svetovych-trhoch-od-roku-1900\/","title":{"rendered":"A gabona vil\u00e1gpiaci \u00e1r\u00e1nak alakul\u00e1sa 1900 \u00f3ta"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container has-pattern-background has-mask-background nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1289.6px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p>A b\u00faza \u00e1ra 1913 \u00e9s 2022 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt re\u00e1l\u00e9rt\u00e9ken k\u00f6zel 18-szoros\u00e1ra emelkedett - a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 id\u0151szakr\u00f3l <strong><b>29 USD\/tonna rekordszintre 522 USD\/tonn\u00e1ra<\/b><\/strong>. E sz\u00e1m m\u00f6g\u00f6tt nem a hossz\u00fa t\u00e1v\u00fa keresletn\u00f6veked\u00e9s, hanem hirtelen sokkok sorozata \u00e1ll: k\u00e9t vil\u00e1gh\u00e1bor\u00fa, az 1970-es \u00e9vek olajv\u00e1ls\u00e1ga, a 2007-2008-as \u00e9lelmiszerv\u00e1ls\u00e1g \u00e9s Ukrajna 2022-es orosz megsz\u00e1ll\u00e1sa. A gabonapiac t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmileg a geopolitikai \u00e9s makrogazdas\u00e1gi stabilit\u00e1s egyik leg\u00e9rz\u00e9kenyebb barom\u00e9tere - minden jelent\u0151s k\u00fcls\u0151 sokk \u00e1rrobban\u00e1sban nyilv\u00e1nul meg, amely sokkal intenz\u00edvebb, mint az ipari term\u00e9kek eset\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n<p>Az al\u00e1bbi elemz\u00e9s a gabonaf\u00e9l\u00e9k \u00e1r\u00e1nak alakul\u00e1s\u00e1t 1900-t\u00f3l napjainkig k\u00f6veti nyomon az adatok grafikonjain kereszt\u00fcl. Az eredm\u00e9ny egy olyan piaci k\u00e9pet mutat, ahol a mez\u0151gazdas\u00e1g technol\u00f3giai fejl\u0151d\u00e9se hossz\u00fa t\u00e1von visszafogta az \u00e1rakat, de <strong><b>a geopolitikai \u00e9s \u00e9ghajlati t\u00f6r\u00e9sek mindig fel\u00fclkerekednek rajtuk.<\/b><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-1 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-padding-top:35px;--awb-padding-right:35px;--awb-padding-bottom:35px;--awb-padding-left:35px;--awb-bg-color:var(--awb-color2);--awb-bg-color-hover:var(--awb-color2);--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:40px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-title title fusion-title-1 fusion-sep-none fusion-title-text fusion-title-size-four\" style=\"--awb-text-color:var(--awb-color5);--awb-margin-bottom:0px;--awb-margin-top-small:10px;--awb-margin-right-small:0px;--awb-margin-bottom-small:10px;--awb-margin-left-small:0px;\"><h4 class=\"fusion-title-heading title-heading-left fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" style=\"margin:0;--fontSize:24;--minFontSize:24;line-height:2;\">Cikk tartalma<\/h4><\/div><div class=\"awb-toc-el awb-toc-el--1\" data-awb-toc-id=\"1\" data-awb-toc-options=\"{&quot;allowed_heading_tags&quot;:{&quot;h2&quot;:0,&quot;h3&quot;:1},&quot;ignore_headings&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;ignore_headings_words&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;enable_cache&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;highlight_current_heading&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;hide_hidden_titles&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;limit_container&quot;:&quot;post_content&quot;,&quot;select_custom_headings&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;icon&quot;:&quot;fa-flag fas&quot;,&quot;counter_type&quot;:&quot;decimal&quot;}\" style=\"--awb-item-font-size:16px;--awb-item-color:var(--awb-color6);--awb-list-indent:25px;--awb-item-padding-left:5px;--awb-counter-type:counters(awb-toc, &quot;.&quot;, decimal) &quot;. &quot;;\"><div class=\"awb-toc-el__content\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-2 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-2\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A gabonaf\u00e9l\u00e9k nemzetk\u00f6zi kereskedelme a 20. sz\u00e1zad els\u0151 fel\u00e9ben\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A tanulm\u00e1ny szerint <em><i>A gabonaf\u00e9l\u00e9k nemzetk\u00f6zi kereskedelm\u00e9nek dinamik\u00e1ja<\/i><\/em>\u00a0<strong>a gabonapiac 1900-1938-ra m\u00e1r teljesen globaliz\u00e1l\u00f3dott.<\/strong>. Az \u00e1rak szinkronban reag\u00e1ltak a h\u00e1bor\u00fas konfliktusokra, a kereskedelmi korl\u00e1tokra \u00e9s az \u00f6sszeoml\u00e1sra a nagy gazdas\u00e1gi vil\u00e1gv\u00e1ls\u00e1g alatt. A gabonaf\u00e9l\u00e9k nemzetk\u00f6zi kereskedelmi forgalma nem csak a kereslet cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se miatt esett vissza - a szab\u00e1lyoz\u00e1s, az \u00e1rfolyamkorl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok \u00e9s a nagyhatalmak k\u00f6z\u00f6tti kereskedelmi kapcsolatok felboml\u00e1sa d\u00f6nt\u0151 szerepet j\u00e1tszott.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-3 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27725304\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27725304\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-3\"><p>Mindk\u00e9t mutat\u00f3 az els\u0151 vil\u00e1gh\u00e1bor\u00fa kit\u00f6r\u00e9s\u00e9ig \u00e9ppen a 100-as index felett mozog. A k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vekben <strong><b>1914-1920 A b\u00faza \u00e1ra 250-280 k\u00f6r\u00fclire emelkedett.<\/b><\/strong>, m\u00edg az \u00e1ltal\u00e1nos nagykereskedelmi index m\u00e9rs\u00e9keltebben emelkedett (200-220 k\u00f6r\u00fcl). A b\u00faza m\u00e1s \u00e1rucikkekhez viszony\u00edtott t\u00fal\u00e1raz\u00e1sa j\u00f3l szeml\u00e9lteti, hogy az ell\u00e1t\u00e1si l\u00e1ncok h\u00e1bor\u00fas zavarai - az orosz \u00e9s ukr\u00e1n termel\u00e9skies\u00e9s, a haj\u00f3z\u00e1si \u00fatvonalak blok\u00e1dja - hogyan n\u00f6velik az \u00e9lelmiszer\u00e1rakat gyorsabban, mint maga az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>1920 ut\u00e1n meredek zuhan\u00e1s k\u00f6vetkezik: 1923-ra mindk\u00e9t index 150 al\u00e1 t\u00e9r vissza. A b\u00faza gyorsabban esik, ami meger\u0151s\u00edti, hogy az ipari nyersanyagokhoz k\u00e9pest nagyobb a piaci volatilit\u00e1sa. Ez a nagy gazdas\u00e1gi vil\u00e1gv\u00e1ls\u00e1gban cs\u00facsosodik ki: <strong>1932-ben a b\u00fazaindex j\u00f3val 60 al\u00e1 esik.<\/strong> - A re\u00e1l\u00e1r t\u00f6bb mint 40 %-tal alacsonyabb, mint a h\u00e1bor\u00fa el\u0151tt, 1913-ban. A k\u00fcls\u0151 sokkok (h\u00e1bor\u00fa, v\u00e1ls\u00e1g) sokkal intenz\u00edvebben ir\u00e1ny\u00edtj\u00e1k az agr\u00e1rterm\u00e9kek \u00e1ralakul\u00e1s\u00e1t, mint a kereslet \u00e9s k\u00edn\u00e1lat alapjai.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-4 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-4\"><h2><strong><b>A gabonakereskedelem fejl\u0151d\u00e9se 1903-1938<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Rice \u00edrja a legfigyelemrem\u00e9lt\u00f3bb t\u00f6rt\u00e9netet: az 1903-as 100-as indexr\u0151l 1903-ra emelkedik fel a <strong><b>306 a besz\u00e1mol\u00e1si id\u0151szak v\u00e9g\u00e9n<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- h\u00e1romszoros\u00e1ra n\u0151tt, ami az \u00e1zsiai kereskedelmi \u00fatvonalak b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9t \u00e9s a gyarmati gazdas\u00e1gok n\u00f6vekv\u0151 kereslet\u00e9t t\u00fckr\u00f6zi. A b\u00faza viszonylag stabilan tartotta mag\u00e1t, m\u00e9rs\u00e9kelt n\u00f6veked\u00e9ssel.<\/p>\n<p>Ellenkez\u0151leg, <strong><b>a zab \u00e9s a rozs struktur\u00e1lis hanyatl\u00e1son megy kereszt\u00fcl<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- index\u00fck az 1920-as \u00e9vek \u00f3ta folyamatosan cs\u00f6kken. Az ok egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171: a sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1s g\u00e9pes\u00edt\u00e9se megsz\u00fcntette a lovat, mint a zab ir\u00e1nti f\u0151 keresleti forr\u00e1st. A kukorica mutatja a legnagyobb ingadoz\u00e1st, 1914-1918-ban \u00e9s az 1930-as \u00e9vekben is jelent\u0151s ingadoz\u00e1sokkal. A grafikonon l\u00e1that\u00f3, hogy az egyes \u00e1rucikkek elt\u00e9r\u0151 \u00e9rz\u00e9kenys\u00e9ggel \u00e9s ir\u00e1nyban reag\u00e1lnak a geopolitikai \u00e9s gazdas\u00e1gi v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sokra - a \u201egabona\u201c nem egy homog\u00e9n kateg\u00f3ria.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-5 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27733079\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27733079\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-6 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-5\"><h2>A m\u00e1sodik vil\u00e1gh\u00e1bor\u00fa \u00e9s a gabona\u00e1rak (1939-1945)<\/h2>\n<p>A m\u00e1sodik vil\u00e1gh\u00e1bor\u00fa \u00e9vei alatt a gabona\u00e1rak a legt\u00f6bb orsz\u00e1gban <strong><b>adminisztrat\u00edvan szab\u00e1lyozott<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0\u00e9s a h\u00e1bor\u00fa sz\u00fcks\u00e9gleteinek al\u00e1rendelt termel\u00e9s. Az ebb\u0151l az id\u0151szakb\u00f3l sz\u00e1rmaz\u00f3 piaci \u00e1rak nem teljesen \u00f6sszehasonl\u00edthat\u00f3ak a b\u00e9keid\u0151ben \u00e9rv\u00e9nyes \u00e1rakkal. Az USDA t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi statisztik\u00e1i szerint a b\u00faza nagykereskedelmi \u00e1ra az USA-ban 1940-ben a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151k\u00e9ppen alakult <strong><b>kb. 1 USD\/bushel, ami 39 USD\/tonn\u00e1nak felel meg.<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- azaz az alatt a szint alatt, amelyet a piac \u00e1llami beavatkoz\u00e1s n\u00e9lk\u00fcl el\u00e9rt volna.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-7 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27739470\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27739470\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-6\"><p>Az \u00f6tvenes \u00e9s hatvanas \u00e9vek a figyelemre m\u00e9lt\u00f3 stabilit\u00e1s id\u0151szaka: a b\u00faz\u00e1val s\u00e1vosan kereskednek. <strong><b>60-80 USD\/t<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0a n\u00f6vekv\u0151 n\u00e9pess\u00e9g ellen\u00e9re. Az ok egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171: a \u201ez\u00f6ld forradalomnak\u201c (hibrid fajt\u00e1k, szintetikus m\u0171tr\u00e1gy\u00e1k, g\u00e9pes\u00edt\u00e9s) k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151en a termeszt\u00e9s t\u00f6meges kiterjeszt\u00e9se olyan t\u00f6bbletet eredm\u00e9nyez, amely lenyomja az \u00e1rakat.<\/p>\n<p>A nagy \u00e1tt\u00f6r\u00e9s 1973-1974-ben k\u00f6vetkezik be: az \u00e1r 80-r\u00f3l majdnem 80-ra ugrik. <strong><b>200 USD\/t - ez k\u00e9t \u00e9v alatt t\u00f6bb mint 140 % n\u00f6veked\u00e9st jelent<\/b><\/strong>. Az ugr\u00e1s m\u00f6g\u00f6tt egyidej\u0171 sokkok \u00e1llnak: az olajv\u00e1ls\u00e1g (dr\u00e1g\u00e1bb m\u0171tr\u00e1gya \u00e9s sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1s), a Szovjetuni\u00f3 t\u00f6meges amerikai b\u00fazav\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00e1sa, valamint term\u00e9skies\u00e9sek t\u00f6bb kontinensen. Az 1980-as \u00e9vek visszaes\u00e9st hoztak, de az \u00e1rak 120-180 USD\/tonna k\u00f6z\u00f6tt ingadoztak - folyamatosan a v\u00e1ls\u00e1g el\u0151tti szintek felett. A 2000-es \u00e9v 120 USD\/tonna alatt z\u00e1rja az \u00e9vsz\u00e1zadot, ami re\u00e1l\u00e9rt\u00e9ken az egyik legalacsonyabb \u00e9rt\u00e9ket jelenti - ami a mez\u0151gazdas\u00e1g technol\u00f3giai fejl\u0151d\u00e9s\u00e9nek bizony\u00edt\u00e9ka.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-8 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-7\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A f\u0151bb gabonaf\u00e9l\u00e9k vil\u00e1gpiaci \u00e1rai (USD\/t)<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Az \u00e1bra \u00f6t \u00e1rut \u00e1br\u00e1zol egy olyan id\u0151szakban, amely mag\u00e1ban foglalja a vil\u00e1gj\u00e1rv\u00e1nyt, az ukrajnai h\u00e1bor\u00fat \u00e9s az azt k\u00f6vet\u0151 normaliz\u00e1l\u00f3d\u00e1st. A rizs domin\u00e1l az eg\u00e9sz id\u0151szak alatt, az \u00e1rak a <strong><b>400-600 USD\/t<\/b><\/strong>; a 2023 k\u00f6r\u00fcli cs\u00facspont az indiai exportkorl\u00e1toz\u00e1sokhoz kapcsol\u00f3dik, amelyek 2023 nyar\u00e1n betiltott\u00e1k a rizs kivitel\u00e9t.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-9 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27740049\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27740049\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-8\"><p>A b\u00faza, a kukorica \u00e9s a cirok szinte azonos mint\u00e1zatot k\u00f6vet: 2020-ig stabilit\u00e1s, 2021-2022-ben er\u0151teljes n\u00f6veked\u00e9s (a b\u00faza el\u00e9ri az <strong><b>440-520 USD\/t<\/b><\/strong>), \u00e9s 2023-t\u00f3l 200-250 USD\/tonn\u00e1ra cs\u00f6kken\u0151 p\u00e1ly\u00e1ra \u00e1ll vissza.<\/p>\n<p>A h\u00e1rom \u00e1rucikk ilyen szinkroniz\u00e1lt mozg\u00e1sa meger\u0151s\u00edti, hogy a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s mozgat\u00f3rug\u00f3ja nem valamilyen konkr\u00e9t agron\u00f3miai ok, hanem rendszerszint\u0171 geopolitikai \u00e9s makrogazdas\u00e1gi sokkok - a fekete-tengeri exportfolyos\u00f3k megszakad\u00e1sa \u00e9s az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s k\u00f6rnyezet - voltak. Az \u00e1rpa visszafogottabban reag\u00e1lt \u00e9s hamarabb stabiliz\u00e1l\u00f3dott, ami t\u00fckr\u00f6zi a glob\u00e1lis exportpiac kisebb r\u00e9szesed\u00e9s\u00e9t.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-10 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27744509\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27744509\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-11 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-9\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A gabona\u00e1rak \u00f6sszehasonl\u00edt\u00e1sa m\u00e1s \u00e1rucikkekkel<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A grafikon a mez\u0151gazdas\u00e1gi nyersanyagokat az ipari nyersanyagokkal \u00e9s a nemesf\u00e9mekkel \u00e1ll\u00edtja szembe. Az eredm\u00e9ny egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171en kedvez\u0151tlen az agr\u00e1rgazdas\u00e1g sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra: <strong><b>a kaka\u00f3 meghaladta a 230-as indexet<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0(2023-t\u00f3l t\u00f6bb mint k\u00e9tszeres\u00e9re emelkedik az \u00e1ra, amit a nyugat-afrikai term\u00e9skies\u00e9sek okoznak), az arany \u00e9s az ez\u00fcst pedig a 150-170-es index felett van.<\/p>\n<p>Ellenkez\u0151leg, <strong><b>a b\u00faza mennyis\u00e9ge 75-80 - 20-25 %-vel a 2023-as referencia\u00e9v alatt van.<\/b><\/strong>. A cukor, a gyapot \u00e9s a sz\u00e9n hasonl\u00f3an viselkedik. A gazd\u00e1lkod\u00f3k sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra ez az input-output trade-off roml\u00e1s\u00e1t jelenti: az energia- \u00e9s m\u0171tr\u00e1gyak\u00f6lts\u00e9gek (amelyek az olaj- \u00e9s f\u00e9m\u00e1rakhoz kapcsol\u00f3dnak) lassabban cs\u00f6kkennek, mint a gabonaelad\u00e1sokb\u00f3l sz\u00e1rmaz\u00f3 bev\u00e9telek. A nemesf\u00e9meknek kedvez a geopolitikai bizonytalans\u00e1g \u00e9s a k\u00f6zponti bankok kereslete; a gabonaf\u00e9l\u00e9k \u00e1ra a 2022-es rekordmagas \u00e9rt\u00e9kek ut\u00e1n korrekci\u00f3t mutat.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-12 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-10\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">B\u00faza\u00e1rak a k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 orsz\u00e1gokban\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A gabonaf\u00e9l\u00e9k \u00e1rai r\u00e9gi\u00f3nk\u00e9nt jelent\u0151sen elt\u00e9rnek. A k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9gek az \u00e9ghajlati viszonyoknak, az \u00f6nell\u00e1t\u00e1s m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9nek, a logisztikai k\u00f6lts\u00e9geknek \u00e9s a piaci korm\u00e1nyzati beavatkoz\u00e1snak tudhat\u00f3k be.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-13 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27745470\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27745470\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-11\"><p>A k\u00f6z\u00f6s nevez\u0151 a 2022-ben bek\u00f6vetkez\u0151 meredek \u00e1rcs\u00facs: Ukrajna \u00e9s Argent\u00edna el\u00e9rte az \u00e9rt\u00e9keket. <strong><b>500 USD\/t felett<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- 2020-hoz k\u00e9pest t\u00f6bb mint 100 % n\u00f6veked\u00e9st jelent. Paradox m\u00f3don \u00e9ppen Ukrajna, mint akt\u00edv h\u00e1bor\u00fas konfliktusban l\u00e9v\u0151 orsz\u00e1g, az egyik legmagasabb \u00e1rcs\u00facsot \u00e9li meg; ennek oka a geopolitikai kock\u00e1zati pr\u00e9mium, a Fekete-tengeren \u00e1tvezet\u0151 exportfolyos\u00f3k megszakad\u00e1sa \u00e9s a vev\u0151k jelenlegi nyom\u00e1sa a fennmarad\u00f3 er\u0151forr\u00e1sokra. Franciaorsz\u00e1g \u00e9s N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g kor\u00e1bban tet\u0151zik \u00e9s gyorsabban korrig\u00e1l - a m\u0171k\u00f6d\u0151 uni\u00f3s piaci mechanizmusok \u00e9s a megb\u00edzhat\u00f3 logisztika enyh\u00edti a sokkot.<\/p>\n<p>India statisztikai szempontb\u00f3l kil\u00f3g a sorb\u00f3l: \u00e1rai egy sz\u0171k s\u00e1vban ingadoznak. <strong><b>200-300 USD\/t<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0a vizsg\u00e1lt id\u0151szakban, ami a massz\u00edv korm\u00e1nyzati szab\u00e1lyoz\u00e1s, az \u00e1llami k\u00e9szletek \u00e9s az exportkorl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok eredm\u00e9nye, amelyek de facto f\u00fcggetlen\u00edtik az indiai piacot a glob\u00e1lis \u00e1rjelz\u00e9st\u0151l. 2025-2026-ra minden orsz\u00e1g a 200-330 $\/tonna s\u00e1vba konverg\u00e1l - a piac elnyelte a h\u00e1bor\u00fas pr\u00e9miumok nagy r\u00e9sz\u00e9t.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-14 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-12\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A b\u00faza\u00e1rak \u00e1ttekint\u00e9se a legfontosabb t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi id\u0151szakokban<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-13\"><p>Az 1913-1945 k\u00f6z\u00f6tti t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi \u00e1rak az USDA hivatalos statisztik\u00e1ib\u00f3l (korm\u00e1ny \u00e1ltal szab\u00e1lyozott \u00e1rak) \u00fajrasz\u00e1m\u00edtott re\u00e1l\u00e9rt\u00e9keken alapulnak. A 2000 ut\u00e1ni \u00e1rak a glob\u00e1lis v\u00e1ls\u00e1gokra reag\u00e1l\u00f3 nemzetk\u00f6zi referencia\u00e1rakat jelentik.<\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-14\"><div style=\"width: 100%; overflow-x: auto; -webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 100%; min-width: 700px; border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #000; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5;\">\n<thead>\n<tr style=\"background: #eaf5ea; font-weight: bold;\">\n<th style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px; text-align: left;\"><strong>Id\u0151szak<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px; text-align: left;\"><strong>\u00c9v<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px; text-align: left;\"><strong>B\u00faza \u00e1ra (USD\/t)<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px; text-align: left;\"><strong>Az \u00e1rakra gyakorolt hat\u00e1s<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Az 1. IB el\u0151tt<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">1913<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$29.17\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">A h\u00e1bor\u00fa el\u0151tti stabilit\u00e1s<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Az 1. SVV ut\u00e1n<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">1920<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$67.09\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">\u00c1remel\u00e9sek a termel\u00e9s megszakad\u00e1sa miatt<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">A nagy gazdas\u00e1gi vil\u00e1gv\u00e1ls\u00e1g<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">1929 - 1933<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$14.04\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">A term\u00e9ny\u00e1rak 40 %-kal cs\u00f6kkennek - 60%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">2. SVV<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">1939 - 1945<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$39,32\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Szab\u00e1lyzat<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">\u00c9lelmez\u00e9si vil\u00e1gv\u00e1ls\u00e1g<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">2008<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$439,72\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Az \u00e1rak meredeken emelkedtek<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Konfliktus Ukrajn\u00e1ban<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">2022<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$522.29\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Rekord gabona\u00e1rak<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-15\"><p>A t\u00e1bl\u00e1zatb\u00f3l egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171en kider\u00fcl, hogy a h\u00e1bor\u00fak, a gazdas\u00e1gi v\u00e1ls\u00e1gok \u00e9s az ell\u00e1t\u00e1si l\u00e1ncok megszakad\u00e1sa jelent\u0151s hat\u00e1ssal volt a gabona\u00e1rakra. A legmagasabb \u00e9rt\u00e9keket a modern vil\u00e1gv\u00e1ls\u00e1gok idej\u00e9n regisztr\u00e1lt\u00e1k - \u00e9s nem, ahogyan azt n\u00e9ha felt\u00e9telezik, a vil\u00e1gh\u00e1bor\u00fak idej\u00e9n, amikor az \u00e1rak szab\u00e1lyozottak voltak.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-15 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-16\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A b\u00faza jelenlegi vil\u00e1gpiaci \u00e1rai 2025 k\u00f6zep\u00e9t\u0151l 2026 elej\u00e9ig.<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-17\"><p>A b\u00faza \u00e1tlagos referencia\u00e1ra a vil\u00e1gpiacon 2026 elej\u00e9n a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 k\u00f6r\u00fcl alakul <strong><b>218 USD\/t (180-200 \u20ac\/t az eur\u00f3pai exportpiacokon)<\/b><\/strong>. A 2022-es rekordmagass\u00e1gok \u00e9s a 2008-as v\u00e1ls\u00e1g ut\u00e1n a piac a konszolid\u00e1ci\u00f3 szakasz\u00e1ba l\u00e9pett. Az \u00e1rg\u00f6rbe egy viszonylag sz\u0171k s\u00e1vban ingadozik, jelent\u0151s kiugr\u00e1sok n\u00e9lk\u00fcl, ami azt jelzi, hogy sem az \u00e9ghajlati, sem a geopolitikai t\u00e9nyez\u0151k nem \u00e9rt\u00e9k el m\u00e9g az \u00fajabb \u00e1rfolyam-t\u00f6r\u00e9shez sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges intenzit\u00e1st.<\/p>\n<p>A piac jelenleg figyelemmel k\u00eds\u00e9ri az \u0151szi b\u00faza helyzet\u00e9t az USA-ban \u00e9s az EU d\u00e9li r\u00e9sz\u00e9n, az ausztr\u00e1l \u00e9s argentin betakar\u00edt\u00e1si el\u0151rejelz\u00e9seket, valamint a fekete-tengeri exportfolyos\u00f3k tov\u00e1bbi alakul\u00e1s\u00e1t.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-16 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27736843\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27736843\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-18\"><p>N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Ausztria \u00e1ll az \u00e9len a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e1rakkal <strong><b>198 \u20ac\/t<\/b><\/strong>, ami megfelel a magasabb logisztikai \u00e9s min\u0151s\u00e9gi k\u00f6vetelm\u00e9nyeket t\u00e1maszt\u00f3 eur\u00f3pai fogyaszt\u00f3i piac k\u00f6z\u00e9ppontj\u00e1ban elfoglalt hely\u00fcknek. Rom\u00e1ni\u00e1ban \u00e9s a Cseh K\u00f6zt\u00e1rsas\u00e1gban alacsonyabbak az \u00e1rak, ami exportorient\u00e1lts\u00e1gukat \u00e9s az olcs\u00f3bb fekete-tengeri kereskedelemhez val\u00f3 k\u00f6zels\u00e9g\u00fcket t\u00fckr\u00f6zi. Az EU-n bel\u00fcli r\u00e9gi\u00f3k k\u00f6z\u00f6tti sz\u00f3r\u00f3d\u00e1s (15-20 \u20ac\/t k\u00f6r\u00fcl) t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi viszonylatban viszonylag kicsi, \u00e9s meger\u0151s\u00edti az egys\u00e9ges piac hat\u00e9konys\u00e1g\u00e1t.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-17 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27737000\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27737000\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-19\"><p>A takarm\u00e1nykukoric\u00e1n\u00e1l az \u00e1rak f\u00f6ldrajzi sz\u00f3r\u00f3d\u00e1sa nagyobb, mint az \u00e9tkez\u00e9si b\u00faz\u00e1n\u00e1l. Spanyolorsz\u00e1g (Zaragoza) \u00e9s Franciaorsz\u00e1g j\u00e1r az \u00e9len - Spanyolorsz\u00e1g az EU egyik legnagyobb sert\u00e9sh\u00fastermel\u0151je, \u00e9s importf\u00fcgg\u0151. A nagyobb saj\u00e1t termel\u00e9ssel rendelkez\u0151 orsz\u00e1gok (Rom\u00e1nia, Magyarorsz\u00e1g) alacsonyabb termel\u0151i \u00e1rakat mutatnak. A takarm\u00e1nygabon\u00e1k eset\u00e9ben <strong><b>a region\u00e1lis t\u00e9nyez\u0151k jelent\u0151sebb szerepet j\u00e1tszanak az \u00e1rakban, mint az \u00e9lelmiszeripari alapanyagok eset\u00e9ben<\/b><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-18 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27737580\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27737580\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-20\"><p>A durumb\u00faza az \u00e1r tekintet\u00e9ben a legink\u00e1bb k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6zik a t\u00f6bbi gabonaf\u00e9l\u00e9t\u0151l: Olaszorsz\u00e1gban az \u00e1r meghaladja <strong><b>260 \u20ac\/t<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- t\u00f6bb mint 30 %-tel a n\u00e9metorsz\u00e1gi k\u00f6z\u00f6ns\u00e9ges \u00e9tkez\u00e9si b\u00faza \u00e1ra felett. A durumb\u00faz\u00e1t f\u00f6ldrajzilag koncentr\u00e1ltan termesztik (Olaszorsz\u00e1g, Franciaorsz\u00e1g, \u00c9szak-Afrika, Kanada), \u00e9s rendk\u00edv\u00fcl specifikus keresletet t\u00e1maszt - ez a t\u00e9szta \u00e9s a kuszkusz alapanyaga. B\u00e1rmilyen term\u00e9skies\u00e9s a kulcsfontoss\u00e1g\u00fa term\u0151ter\u00fcleteken (asz\u00e1ly Alg\u00e9ri\u00e1ban vagy Kanad\u00e1ban) sokkal gyorsabban \u00e9s \u00e9lesebben hat az \u00e1rra, mint a f\u00f6ldrajzi szempontb\u00f3l soksz\u00edn\u0171bb termeszt\u00e9s\u0171 nyersanyagok eset\u00e9ben. A durumfeldolgoz\u00f3k sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra ez egy strat\u00e9giai fontoss\u00e1g\u00fa alapanyag, korl\u00e1tozott helyettes\u00edt\u00e9si lehet\u0151s\u00e9gekkel.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-19 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-21\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A j\u00f6v\u0151ben tov\u00e1bb emelkednek majd a gabona\u00e1rak?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Az OECD \u00e9s a FAO becsl\u00e9sei szerint a b\u00faza, a kukorica \u00e9s m\u00e1s gabonaf\u00e9l\u00e9k \u00e1ra hossz\u00fa t\u00e1von v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an megk\u00f6zel\u00edti a k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1v\u00fa tendenci\u00e1t, \u00e9s <strong><b>m\u00e9rs\u00e9kelt nomin\u00e1lis n\u00f6veked\u00e9s 2034-ig<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0- a b\u00faza eset\u00e9ben 296 USD\/tonna k\u00f6r\u00fcli c\u00e9l\u00e9rt\u00e9kkel.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-20 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27737164\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27737164\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-21 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-22\"><p>A kulcssz\u00f3 a \u201enomin\u00e1lis\u201c: 2-3 \u00e9ves infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s r\u00e1ta mellett % <strong><b>a b\u00faza \u00e1r\u00e1nak re\u00e1lv\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00f3ereje csaknem \u00e1lland\u00f3 marad, vagy enyh\u00e9n cs\u00f6kken.<\/b><\/strong>. A termel\u0151k sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra ez azt jelenti, hogy az \u00e1roptimalizmust \u00f3vatosan kell \u00e9rtelmezni - a nomin\u00e1lis n\u00f6veked\u00e9s nem jelenti automatikusan a re\u00e1lj\u00f6vedelem n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9t.<\/p>\n<p>A rizs nomin\u00e1lis \u00e1ra a teljes referencia-id\u0151szak alatt a legmagasabb, a b\u00faza \u00e9s a kukorica pedig stabilabb tendenci\u00e1kkal k\u00f6veti. A legjelent\u0151sebb kock\u00e1zati t\u00e9nyez\u0151, amely ezt az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st felfel\u00e9 m\u00f3dos\u00edthatja, tov\u00e1bbra is a sz\u00e9ls\u0151s\u00e9ges \u00e9ghajlati jelens\u00e9gek er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9se \u00e9s az esetleges geopolitikai fesz\u00fclts\u00e9gek a kulcsfontoss\u00e1g\u00fa termel\u00e9si ter\u00fcleteken - a fekete-tengeri r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban, a d\u00e9l-\u00e1zsiai monszun\u00f6vezetben \u00e9s az \u00e9szak-amerikai pr\u00e9rin.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":775,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[20,18,19],"class_list":["post-770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trh-a-ceny","tag-agrokomodity","tag-historia","tag-polnohospodarstvo"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=770"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":983,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770\/revisions\/983"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}