{"id":770,"date":"2026-03-16T10:04:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T10:04:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/?p=770"},"modified":"2026-03-31T23:20:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T23:20:55","slug":"vyvoj-ceny-obilia-na-svetovych-trhoch-od-roku-1900","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/vyvoj-ceny-obilia-na-svetovych-trhoch-od-roku-1900\/","title":{"rendered":"Entwicklung der Getreidepreise auf den Weltm\u00e4rkten seit 1900"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container has-pattern-background has-mask-background nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1289.6px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p>Cena p\u0161enice sa od roku 1913 do roku 2022 re\u00e1lne zv\u00fd\u0161ila takmer 18-n\u00e1sobne \u2013 z <strong><b>29 USD\/t na rekordn\u00fdch 522 USD\/t<\/b><\/strong>. Za t\u00fdmto \u010d\u00edslom nestoj\u00ed dlhodob\u00fd rast dopytu, ale s\u00e9ria n\u00e1hlych \u0161okov: dve svetov\u00e9 vojny, ropn\u00e1 kr\u00edza 70. rokov, potravinov\u00e1 kr\u00edza 2007\u20132008 a rusk\u00e1 inv\u00e1zia na Ukrajinu v roku 2022. Obiln\u00fd trh je historicky jedn\u00fdm z najcitlivej\u0161\u00edch barometrov geopolitickej a makroekonomickej stability \u2013 ka\u017ed\u00fd v\u00fdrazn\u00fd extern\u00fd \u0161ok sa prejavuje skokov\u00fdm pohybom cien, ktor\u00fd je ove\u013ea intenz\u00edvnej\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e u priemyseln\u00fdch tovarov.<\/p>\n<p>Nasleduj\u00faca anal\u00fdza sleduje v\u00fdvoj cien obiln\u00edn od roku 1900 po s\u00fa\u010dasnos\u0165 prostredn\u00edctvom d\u00e1tov\u00fdch grafov. V\u00fdsledkom je obraz trhu, kde technologick\u00fd pokrok v po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstve dlhodobo tlm\u00ed ceny, no <strong><b>geopolitick\u00e9 a klimatick\u00e9 zlomy ich v\u017edy prekonaj\u00fa<\/b><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-1 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-padding-top:35px;--awb-padding-right:35px;--awb-padding-bottom:35px;--awb-padding-left:35px;--awb-bg-color:var(--awb-color2);--awb-bg-color-hover:var(--awb-color2);--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:40px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-title title fusion-title-1 fusion-sep-none fusion-title-text fusion-title-size-four\" style=\"--awb-text-color:var(--awb-color5);--awb-margin-bottom:0px;--awb-margin-top-small:10px;--awb-margin-right-small:0px;--awb-margin-bottom-small:10px;--awb-margin-left-small:0px;\"><h4 class=\"fusion-title-heading title-heading-left fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" style=\"margin:0;--fontSize:24;--minFontSize:24;line-height:2;\">Obsah \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/h4><\/div><div class=\"awb-toc-el awb-toc-el--1\" data-awb-toc-id=\"1\" data-awb-toc-options=\"{&quot;allowed_heading_tags&quot;:{&quot;h2&quot;:0,&quot;h3&quot;:1},&quot;ignore_headings&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;ignore_headings_words&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;enable_cache&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;highlight_current_heading&quot;:&quot;no&quot;,&quot;hide_hidden_titles&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;limit_container&quot;:&quot;post_content&quot;,&quot;select_custom_headings&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;icon&quot;:&quot;fa-flag fas&quot;,&quot;counter_type&quot;:&quot;decimal&quot;}\" style=\"--awb-item-font-size:16px;--awb-item-color:var(--awb-color6);--awb-list-indent:25px;--awb-item-padding-left:5px;--awb-counter-type:counters(awb-toc, &quot;.&quot;, decimal) &quot;. &quot;;\"><div class=\"awb-toc-el__content\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-2 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-2\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Medzin\u00e1rodn\u00fd obchod obchod s obilninami v prvej polovici 20. storo\u010dia\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Pod\u013ea \u0161t\u00fadie <em><i>The Dynamics of International Trade in Cereals<\/i><\/em>\u00a0<strong>bol trh s obilninami v rokoch 1900\u20131938 u\u017e plne globalizovan\u00fd<\/strong>. Ceny reagovali synchronizovane na vojnov\u00e9 konflikty, obchodn\u00e9 bari\u00e9ry aj kolaps v obdob\u00ed Ve\u013ekej hospod\u00e1rskej kr\u00edzy. Medzin\u00e1rodn\u00e9 obchodn\u00e9 toky obiln\u00edn pritom neklesali len d\u00f4sledkom poklesu dopytu \u2013 rozhoduj\u00facu \u00falohu hrala regul\u00e1cia, dev\u00edzov\u00e9 obmedzenia a dezintegr\u00e1cia obchodn\u00fdch vz\u0165ahov medzi ve\u013emocami.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-3 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27725304\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27725304\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-3\"><p>Oba ukazovatele sa pohybuj\u00fa tesne nad indexom 100 a\u017e do vypuknutia prvej svetovej vojny. V rokoch <strong><b>1914\u20131920 ceny p\u0161enice vyleteli na hodnoty okolo 250\u2013280<\/b><\/strong>, zatia\u013e \u010do v\u0161eobecn\u00fd ve\u013ekoobchodn\u00fd index r\u00e1stol miernej\u0161ie (okolo 200\u2013220). Toto nadmern\u00e9 zdra\u017eenie p\u0161enice oproti ostatn\u00fdm tovarom dokumentuje, ako vojnov\u00e9 naru\u0161enie dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00fdch re\u0165azcov \u2013 v\u00fdpadok produkcie z Ruska a Ukrajiny, blok\u00e1da lodn\u00fdch tr\u00e1s \u2013 tla\u010d\u00ed ceny potrav\u00edn nahor r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie ne\u017e infl\u00e1ciu samotn\u00fa.<\/p>\n<p>Po roku 1920 nasleduje prudk\u00fd prepad: do roku 1923 sa oba indexy vr\u00e1tia pod 150. P\u0161enica kles\u00e1 r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie, \u010do potvrdzuje jej vy\u0161\u0161iu trhov\u00fa volatilitu oproti priemyseln\u00fdm tovarom. Kulmina\u010dn\u00fdm bodom je Ve\u013ek\u00e1 hospod\u00e1rska kr\u00edza: <strong>v roku 1932 sa index p\u0161enice prepad\u00e1 hlboko pod hodnotu 60<\/strong> \u2013 re\u00e1lna cena je o viac ako 40 % ni\u017e\u0161ia ne\u017e pred vojnou v roku 1913. Extern\u00e9 \u0161oky (vojna, kr\u00edza) ovl\u00e1daj\u00fa cenov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj agrikomod\u00edt ove\u013ea intenz\u00edvnej\u0161ie ne\u017e fundamenty ponuky a dopytu.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-4 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-4\"><h2><strong><b>V\u00fdvoj obchodu s obilninami v rokoch 1903\u20131938<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Najv\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00ed pr\u00edbeh p\u00ed\u0161e ry\u017ea: z indexu 100 v roku 1903 sa vy\u0161plh\u00e1 na <strong><b>306 ku koncu sledovan\u00e9ho obdobia<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 trojn\u00e1sobn\u00fd n\u00e1rast, ktor\u00fd odr\u00e1\u017ea expanziu \u00e1zijsk\u00fdch obchodn\u00fdch tr\u00e1s a rast\u00faci dopyt koloni\u00e1lnych ekonom\u00edk. P\u0161enica si dr\u017e\u00ed relat\u00edvne stabiln\u00fd v\u00fdvoj s miernym rastom.<\/p>\n<p>Naopak, <strong><b>ovos a ra\u017e za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00fa \u0161truktur\u00e1lny pokles<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 ich index kles\u00e1 od 20. rokov nepreru\u0161ene. Pr\u00ed\u010dina je zrete\u013en\u00e1: mechaniz\u00e1cia dopravy eliminovala ko\u0148a ako hlavn\u00fd zdroj dopytu po ovse. Kukurica vykazuje najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161iu volatilitu s v\u00fdrazn\u00fdmi v\u00fdkyvmi v rokoch 1914\u20131918 a znova v 30. rokoch. Graf ukazuje, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 komodita reaguje na geopolitick\u00e9 a hospod\u00e1rske zmeny inou citlivos\u0165ou a v inom smere \u2013 \u201eobilie&#8220; nie je homog\u00e9nna kateg\u00f3ria.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-5 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27733079\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27733079\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-6 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-5\"><h2>Druh\u00e1 svetov\u00e1 vojna a ceny obilia (1939 \u2013 1945)<\/h2>\n<p>V rokoch druhej svetovej vojny boli ceny obiln\u00edn vo v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ine kraj\u00edn <strong><b>administrat\u00edvne regulovan\u00e9<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0a produkcia podriaden\u00e1 vojnov\u00fdm potreb\u00e1m. Trhov\u00e9 ceny z tohto obdobia nie s\u00fa plne porovnate\u013en\u00e9 s cenami z mierov\u00fdch rokov. Pod\u013ea historick\u00fdch \u0161tatist\u00edk USDA sa ve\u013ekoobchodn\u00e1 cena p\u0161enice v USA v roku 1940 pohybovala na \u00farovni <strong><b>cca 1 USD za bu\u0161el, \u010do zodpoved\u00e1 39 USD\/t<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 teda pod \u00farov\u0148ou, ktor\u00fa by trh dosiahol bez \u0161t\u00e1tnej intervencie.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-7 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27739470\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27739470\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-6\"><p>P\u00e4\u0165desiate a \u0161es\u0165desiate roky s\u00fa obdob\u00edm pozoruhodnej stability: p\u0161enica sa obchoduje v p\u00e1sme <strong><b>60\u201380 USD\/t<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0napriek rast\u00facej popul\u00e1cii. Pr\u00ed\u010dina je zrete\u013en\u00e1 \u2013 masov\u00e1 expanzia pestovania v\u010faka \u201ezelenej revol\u00facii&#8220; (hybridn\u00e9 odrody, syntetick\u00e9 hnojiv\u00e1, mechaniz\u00e1cia) produkuje nadbytok, ktor\u00fd tlm\u00ed ceny.<\/p>\n<p>Z\u00e1sadn\u00fd zlom prich\u00e1dza v rokoch 1973\u20131974: cena vyskakuje z cca 80 na takmer <strong><b>200 USD\/t \u2013 n\u00e1rast o viac ako 140 % za dva roky<\/b><\/strong>. Za t\u00fdmto skokom stoja s\u00fabe\u017en\u00e9 \u0161oky: ropn\u00e1 kr\u00edza (zdra\u017eenie hnoj\u00edv a dopravy), masov\u00fd v\u00fdkup americkej p\u0161enice Sovietskym zv\u00e4zom a zlyhanie \u00farody na viacer\u00fdch kontinentoch. Osemdesiate roky prin\u00e1\u0161aj\u00fa pokles, no ceny osciluj\u00fa v p\u00e1sme 120\u2013180 USD\/t \u2013 trvalo nad predkr\u00edzovou \u00farov\u0148ou. Rok 2000 uzatv\u00e1ra storo\u010die hodnotou pod 120 USD\/t, \u010do v re\u00e1lnom vyjadren\u00ed predstavuje jeden z historicky najni\u017e\u0161\u00edch bodov \u2013 testament technologick\u00e9ho pokroku v po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstve.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-8 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-7\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">V\u00fdvoj cien hlavn\u00fdch obiln\u00edn na svetov\u00fdch trhoch (USD\/t)<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Graf zachyt\u00e1va p\u00e4\u0165 komod\u00edt po\u010das obdobia, ktor\u00e9 zah\u0155\u0148a pand\u00e9miu, vojnu na Ukrajine a n\u00e1sledn\u00fa normaliz\u00e1ciu. Ry\u017ea dominuje po cel\u00e9 sledovan\u00e9 obdobie s cenami v p\u00e1sme <strong><b>400\u2013600 USD\/t<\/b><\/strong>; jej vrchol okolo roku 2023 je spojen\u00fd s exportn\u00fdmi obmedzeniami Indie, ktor\u00e1 v lete 2023 zak\u00e1zala v\u00fdvoz nel\u00fapanej ry\u017ee.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-9 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27740049\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27740049\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-8\"><p>P\u0161enica, kukurica a cirok kop\u00edruj\u00fa takmer identick\u00fd pohyb: stabilita do roku 2020, prudk\u00fd n\u00e1rast v rokoch 2021\u20132022 (p\u0161enica dosahuje <strong><b>440\u2013520 USD\/t<\/b><\/strong>) a od roku 2023 klesaj\u00faca trajekt\u00f3ria sp\u00e4\u0165 ku 200\u2013250 USD\/t.<\/p>\n<p>Tento synchronizovan\u00fd pohyb troch komod\u00edt potvrdzuje, \u017ee hybnou silou rastu nebola \u017eiadna \u0161pecifick\u00e1 agronomick\u00e1 pr\u00ed\u010dina, ale syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 a makroekonomick\u00e9 \u0161oky \u2013 naru\u0161enie \u010diernomorsk\u00fdch exportn\u00fdch koridorov a infla\u010dn\u00e9 prostredie. Ja\u010dme\u0148 reagoval tlmenej\u0161ie a stabilizoval sa sk\u00f4r, \u010do zodpoved\u00e1 jeho men\u0161iemu podielu na glob\u00e1lnom exportnom trhu.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-10 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27744509\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27744509\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-11 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-9\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Porovnanie cien obiln\u00edn s in\u00fdmi komoditami<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Graf konfrontuje po\u013enohospod\u00e1rske komodity s priemyseln\u00fdmi surovinami a drah\u00fdmi kovmi. V\u00fdsledok je pre agrobiznis jednozna\u010dne nepriazniv\u00fd: <strong><b>kakao presiahlo index 230<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0(viac ako zdvojn\u00e1sobenie ceny oproti roku 2023, sp\u00f4soben\u00e9 v\u00fdpadkom \u00farody v z\u00e1padnej Afrike) a zlato so striebrom sa pohybuj\u00fa nad indexom 150\u2013170.<\/p>\n<p>Naopak, <strong><b>p\u0161enica klesla na \u00farove\u0148 okolo 75\u201380 \u2013 teda o 20\u201325 % pod referen\u010dn\u00fd rok 2023<\/b><\/strong>. Podobne sa spr\u00e1va cukor, bavlna a uhlie. Pre farm\u00e1rov to znamen\u00e1 zhor\u0161enie v\u00fdmenn\u00e9ho pomeru vstupov a v\u00fdstupov: n\u00e1klady na energie a hnojiv\u00e1 (napojen\u00e9 na ceny ropy a kovov) klesaj\u00fa pomal\u0161ie ne\u017e tr\u017eby z predaja obiln\u00edn. Drah\u00e9 kovy \u0165a\u017e\u00ed geopolitick\u00e1 neistota a dopyt zo strany centr\u00e1lnych b\u00e1nk; obilniny za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00fa cenov\u00fa korekciu po rekordoch z roku 2022.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-12 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-10\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">V\u00fdvoj cien p\u0161enice v r\u00f4znych krajin\u00e1ch\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Ceny obiln\u00edn sa v\u00fdrazne l\u00ed\u0161ia pod\u013ea regi\u00f3nu. Rozdiely s\u00fa sp\u00f4soben\u00e9 klimatick\u00fdmi podmienkami, mierou sebesta\u010dnosti, logistick\u00fdmi n\u00e1kladmi a z\u00e1sahmi \u0161t\u00e1tu do trhu.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-13 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27745470\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27745470\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-11\"><p>Spolo\u010dn\u00fdm menovate\u013eom je ostr\u00fd cenov\u00fd vrchol v roku 2022: Ukrajina a Argent\u00edna dosahuj\u00fa hodnoty <strong><b>nad 500 USD\/t<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 n\u00e1rast o viac ako 100 % oproti roku 2020. Paradoxne, pr\u00e1ve Ukrajina ako krajina v akt\u00edvnom vojnovom konflikte zaznamen\u00e1va jeden z najvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cenov\u00fdch vrcholov; d\u00f4vodom s\u00fa geopolitick\u00e1 rizikov\u00e1 pr\u00e9mia, preru\u0161enie exportn\u00fdch koridorov cez \u010cierne more a s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd tlak kupcov na zost\u00e1vaj\u00face zdroje. Franc\u00fazsko a Nemecko kulminuj\u00fa sk\u00f4r a r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie koriguj\u00fa \u2013 funguj\u00face E\u00da trhov\u00e9 mechanizmy a spo\u013eahliv\u00e1 logistika zmier\u0148uj\u00fa \u0161ok.<\/p>\n<p>India vystupuje ako \u0161tatistick\u00fd od\u013eahl\u00fd bod: jej ceny kol\u00ed\u0161u v \u00fazkom p\u00e1sme <strong><b>200\u2013300 USD\/t<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0po\u010das cel\u00e9ho sledovan\u00e9ho obdobia, \u010do je d\u00f4sledok mas\u00edvnej \u0161t\u00e1tnej regul\u00e1cie, vl\u00e1dnych z\u00e1sob a exportn\u00fdch obmedzen\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 de facto odde\u013euj\u00fa indick\u00fd trh od glob\u00e1lneho cenov\u00e9ho sign\u00e1lu. Do roku 2025\u20132026 sa v\u0161etky krajiny konverguj\u00fa do p\u00e1sma 200\u2013330 USD\/t \u2013 trh absorboval v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inu vojnov\u00fdch pr\u00e9mi\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-14 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-12\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Preh\u013ead cien p\u0161enice v k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch historick\u00fdch obdobiach<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-13\"><p>Historick\u00e9 ceny za roky 1913\u20131945 vych\u00e1dzaj\u00fa z re\u00e1lnych hodn\u00f4t prepo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdch z ofici\u00e1lnych \u0161tatist\u00edk USDA (ceny regulovan\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1tom). Ceny po roku 2000 predstavuj\u00fa medzin\u00e1rodn\u00e9 benchmarkov\u00e9 ceny reaguj\u00face na glob\u00e1lne kr\u00edzy.<\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-14\"><div style=\"width: 100%; overflow-x: auto; -webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 100%; min-width: 700px; border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #000; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5;\">\n<thead>\n<tr style=\"background: #eaf5ea; font-weight: bold;\">\n<th style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px; text-align: left;\"><strong>Obdobie<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px; text-align: left;\"><strong>Rok<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px; text-align: left;\"><strong>Cena p\u0161enice (USD\/t)<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px; text-align: left;\"><strong>Dopad na ceny<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Pred 1. SVV<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">1913<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$29.17\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Stabilita pred vojnou<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Po 1. SVV<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">1920<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$67.09\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">N\u00e1rast cien pre naru\u0161en\u00fa produkciu<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Ve\u013ek\u00e1 hospod\u00e1rska kr\u00edza<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">1929 &#8211; 1933<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$14.04\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">P\u00e1d cien \u00farody o 40 &#8211; 60%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">2. SVV<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">1939 &#8211; 1945<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$39.32\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Regul\u00e1cie<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Svetov\u00e1 potravinov\u00e1 kr\u00edza<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">2008<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$439.72\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Ceny prudko st\u00fapali<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Konflikt na Ukrajine<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">2022<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">$522.29\/t<\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid #000; padding: 10px;\">Rekordn\u00e9 ceny obiln\u00edn<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-15\"><p>Tabu\u013eka jasne ukazuje, \u017ee vojny, hospod\u00e1rske kr\u00edzy a naru\u0161enie dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00fdch re\u0165azcov mali v\u00fdrazn\u00fd vplyv na v\u00fdvoj cien obiln\u00edn. Najvy\u0161\u0161ie hodnoty boli zaznamenan\u00e9 po\u010das modern\u00fdch glob\u00e1lnych kr\u00edz \u2013 a nie, ako sa niekedy predpoklad\u00e1, po\u010das svetov\u00fdch vojen, kedy boli ceny regulovan\u00e9.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-15 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-16\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Aktu\u00e1lne svetov\u00e9 ceny p\u0161enice od polovice roka 2025 a za\u010diatku roka 2026<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-17\"><p>Priemern\u00e1 referen\u010dn\u00e1 cena p\u0161enice na svetov\u00fdch trhoch sa k za\u010diatku roka 2026 pohybuje okolo <strong><b>218 USD\/t (180\u2013200 \u20ac\/t na eur\u00f3pskych exportn\u00fdch trhoch)<\/b><\/strong>. Po rekordn\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch z roku 2022 a kr\u00edze 2008 trh vst\u00fapil do f\u00e1zy konsolid\u00e1cie. Cenov\u00e1 krivka osciluje v relat\u00edvne \u00fazkom p\u00e1sme bez v\u00fdrazn\u00fdch skokov, \u010do nazna\u010duje, \u017ee ani klimatick\u00e9, ani geopolitick\u00e9 faktory zatia\u013e nenaplnili dostato\u010dn\u00fa intenzitu pre \u010fal\u0161\u00ed cenov\u00fd zlom.<\/p>\n<p>Trh v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti citlivo sleduje stav ozimnej p\u0161enice v USA a na juhu E\u00da, progn\u00f3zy australskej a argent\u00ednskej \u00farody a \u010fal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj \u010diernomorsk\u00fdch exportn\u00fdch koridorov.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-16 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27736843\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27736843\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-18\"><p>Nemecko a Rak\u00fasko ved\u00fa s cenami okolo <strong><b>198 \u20ac\/t<\/b><\/strong>, \u010do zodpoved\u00e1 ich polohe v srdci eur\u00f3pskeho spotrebite\u013esk\u00e9ho trhu s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi logistick\u00fdmi a kvalitat\u00edvnymi n\u00e1rokmi. Rumunsko a \u010cesk\u00e1 republika vykazuj\u00fa ni\u017e\u0161ie ceny, \u010do reflektuje ich exportn\u00fa orient\u00e1ciu a bl\u00edzkos\u0165 lacnej\u0161ieho \u010diernomorsk\u00e9ho obchodu. Medziregion\u00e1lny rozptyl v r\u00e1mci E\u00da (cca 15\u201320 \u20ac\/t) je v historickom kontexte pomerne mal\u00fd a potvrdzuje efektivitu jednotn\u00e9ho trhu.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-17 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27737000\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27737000\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-19\"><p>K\u0155mna kukurica vykazuje v\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00ed geografick\u00fd rozptyl cien ne\u017e potravin\u00e1rska p\u0161enica. \u0160panielsko (Zaragoza) a Franc\u00fazsko s\u00fa na \u010dele \u2013 \u0160panielsko patr\u00ed k najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm producentom brav\u010dov\u00e9ho m\u00e4sa v E\u00da a je z\u00e1visl\u00e9 od importu. Krajiny s v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ou vlastnou produkciou (Rumunsko, Ma\u010farsko) vykazuj\u00fa ni\u017e\u0161ie farm\u00e1rske ceny. Pri k\u0155mnych obilnin\u00e1ch <strong><b>region\u00e1lne faktory hraj\u00fa podstatnej\u0161iu cenov\u00fa \u00falohu ne\u017e pri potravin\u00e1rskych komodit\u00e1ch<\/b><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-18 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27737580\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27737580\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-20\"><p>Tvrd\u00e1 p\u0161enica (durum) je cenovo najodli\u0161nej\u0161ia od ostatn\u00fdch obiln\u00edn: cena v Taliansku presahuje <strong><b>260 \u20ac\/t<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 o viac ako 30 % nad cenami be\u017enej potravin\u00e1rskej p\u0161enice v Nemecku. Durum m\u00e1 geograficky skoncentrovan\u00fa produkciu (Taliansko, Franc\u00fazsko, Severn\u00e1 Afrika, Kanada) a vysoko \u0161pecifick\u00fd dopyt \u2013 je surovinou pre pastu a kuskus. Ka\u017ed\u00fd v\u00fdpadok \u00farody v k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch pestovate\u013esk\u00fdch oblastiach (sucho v Al\u017e\u00edrsku alebo Kanade) sa prejav\u00ed ove\u013ea r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie a ostrej\u0161ie na cene ne\u017e pri komodit\u00e1ch s rozmanitej\u0161ou geografiou produkcie. Pre spracovate\u013eov durum ide o strategick\u00fd vstup s obmedzen\u00fdmi substitutn\u00fdmi mo\u017enos\u0165ami.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-19 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-21\"><h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bud\u00fa ceny obiln\u00edn r\u00e1s\u0165 aj v bud\u00facnosti?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Pod\u013ea odhadov OECD a FAO sa o\u010dak\u00e1va, \u017ee ceny p\u0161enice, kukurice a in\u00fdch obiln\u00edn sa bud\u00fa dlhodobo aproximova\u0165 strednodob\u00fdm trendom s <strong><b>miernym nomin\u00e1lnym rastom do roku 2034<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 s cie\u013eovou hodnotou okolo 296 USD\/t pre p\u0161enicu.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-20 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/27737164\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/27737164\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-21 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-22\"><p>K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 je slovo \u201enomin\u00e1lne&#8220;: pri ro\u010dnej infl\u00e1cii 2\u20133 % <strong><b>re\u00e1lna k\u00fapna sila ceny p\u0161enice zost\u00e1va takmer kon\u0161tantn\u00e1 alebo mierne kles\u00e1<\/b><\/strong>. Pre pestovate\u013eov to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee cenov\u00fd optimizmus treba \u010d\u00edta\u0165 opatrne \u2013 nomin\u00e1lny rast nie je automaticky rastom pr\u00edjmov v re\u00e1lnom vyjadren\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Ry\u017ea si udr\u017eiava najvy\u0161\u0161ie nomin\u00e1lne ceny po\u010das cel\u00e9ho sledovan\u00e9ho horizontu, p\u0161enica a kukurica nasleduj\u00fa so stabilnej\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvojom. Najv\u00fdznamnej\u0161\u00edm rizikov\u00fdm faktorom, ktor\u00fd m\u00f4\u017ee t\u00fato predpove\u010f prekona\u0165 nahor, zost\u00e1va intenzifik\u00e1cia klimatick\u00fdch extr\u00e9mov a potenci\u00e1lne geopolitick\u00e9 nap\u00e4tia v k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch produk\u010dn\u00fdch oblastiach \u2013 \u010diernomorsk\u00fd regi\u00f3n, juho\u00e1zijsk\u00fd monz\u00fanov\u00fd p\u00e1s a severoamerick\u00e1 pr\u00e9ria.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":775,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[20,18,19],"class_list":["post-770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trh-a-ceny","tag-agrokomodity","tag-historia","tag-polnohospodarstvo"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=770"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":983,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770\/revisions\/983"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.proagros.sk\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}